Iran and the Bomb

This is going to be a bit of a departure from my usual writing.

I've been reading quite a bit recently on this topic (and a few others,) and after numerous conversations, I realized that not that many people know what is really going on. So, I thought I would write a bit about this.

There will be a little math (Oh, noes!! Horrors!) But I promise it will be mostly painless. There are some big words, too.

Why it is so important that Iran not be allowed to continue their nuclear program.

Heavy Stuff!
There are many aspects to this, many questions that come into play. What is 'enrichment?' Why should we care about their nuclear power program? They are trying to provide power for civilian purposes. So what if they have 'The Bomb." Israel and Pakistan have the bomb, as well as North Korea. They just want it, like so many other countries do.

There are differences in civilian nuclear programs, and military programs (obviously.) Not to mention, the country that is involved is important; this does not all happen in a vacuum. If Burkino Faso intended to work towards a civilian program, I would not be nearly as leery as I am with Iran's program.

First of all, Iran.

This is a country that... since 1979 has made it a tradition to end Friday prayers with "Death to America." I don't know why our current President does not seem to get this. When someone... especially a political entity that is trying to gain a toehold in the nuclear weapon world, believes the only good you is a dead you, you should take them at face value. If you know for a fact that they are trying to make that concept a reality, take them at face value, and consider yourself at war. As it has been said, "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you."  This would be like meeting a stranger in a dark abandoned street. The stranger comes up to you and says to "Give me all your money, any jewelry you have, and I might not kill you." Then when you take the time to explain that you work with violence prevention groups, and you believe in nonviolence as the answer to any question, they knife you. As the person takes your money, and your life spills out of you, you realize 'oh, I might not be interested in violence, but violence might be interested in me.'

"Death to America." For over 30 years.

Also, according to our own State Department, Iran has been the leading exporter of terror for the last 3 decades. Iran is an accomplice in the 1998 US Embassy bombings in Africa, and in the 9/11 attacks.

Need more?

The deal that the President (and the UN) is trying to make, will lift sanctions as long as Iran promises to slow down their nuclear programs. For 10 years.

OF course, why should they? Can anyone fill me in on a single treaty or sanction that they have complied with? Here is a great list of sanctions thatthey have violated, and it is only current to 2011. International Atomic Energy Agency Sanctions, UN violations... the list goes on and on. Why would anyone believe they will follow through on anything that they already intend to violate? They have with impunity, and they will continue with their goals.

President Obama is willing (and so are many of the UN Countries, and shame on them) to let Iran become a 'Threshold" Nuclear State. So they will have the capabilities of enriching uranium to military grade, but they will not be in the process of enriching it. Yeah, right, who believes that crap? (Other than the President... and the usual cast of fools at the UN.)

So, what does it mean to be 'Threshold?' Why is this so big a deal?

Here is some nuke info, on enrichment, refinement, and how to make The Bomb.

There are 2 kinds of naturally occurring Uranium. U238 and U235. The number refers to the total of neutrons and protons in the nucleus, or center of the atom of uranium. So, U235 has 235 protons(92) and neutrons(143), and U238 has 238 protons(92) and neutrons(146.) I know, all kinds of science-y.

Now I am sure we all remember Science from 7th grade. The Atom is composed of protons and neutrons in the nucleus, and it is surrounded by rings of electrons. The protons are held together by the Strong Nuclear Force. I am sure everyone remembers that like repels like, and all those protons are there, all with their positive charges. Why don't the fly apart? THAT is the Strong Nuclear Force, holding all those like charges extremely close together. That is the force that is unleashed in an atom bomb... literally, the energy released when you break that bond, and get the nucleus of the atom to fly apart.

It is very complicated, it only works over short distances, and the neutrons help the whole thing along.

A good rule of thumb, is that elements that have an even number, are generally more stable than elements that have odd numbers (oxygen [8], platinum [78], v. phosphorus [15] potassium [19.]) Those additional neutrons (146 instead of 143) make U238 very stable (At least in relation to its lighter brother, U235.)

99% or the naturally occurring uranium is U238... of course!! It is more stable! I would hope so!
1% is U235, and U235 is what we want if we want to use it for energy (for good or ill.)

The normal process is called 'enrichment.' In a centrifuge, if you spin say... blood, it will break down by weight, and the different components of blood will separate into plasma, which is light, then a little bit of white blood cells and platelets, and then the red blood cells (heaviest.)

So, you put the uranium into the centrifuge, and spin it away.

A small problem-- uranium is a solid. Liquids separate, gasses separate, but you can spin a solid bar, and all you'll get is dizzy.

So you need to turn it into a liquid or a gas. (warning-- big words coming, but don't be scared!)

The standard/universal method is to take your uranium, mix it with fluorine, and then you have Uranium Hexafluoride gas (Uranium bonded to 6 Fluorides.) This is then spun in the centrifuge, and the lighter U235 'floats' near the top, and the heavier U238 gloms to the bottom. Part of that U235 is scooped off the top, and then the process is repeated.

(note-- Uranium Hexafluoride gas (UH6, or 'Hex,') is radioactive, toxic, and corrosive. Trifecta!!-- in the words of John Walker.)

The numbers to reach are pretty staggering. Let us say you start with 10,000 lbs of Uranium. Simple math will tell you that you have 9,900 lbs of U238, and 100 lbs of U235. Pure U235 is nearly impossible to work with, so you want a ration of U238 to U235 (the stability of U238 tampens down the reactivity of the U235, but only up to a point. Kind of like adding butter to your cooking oil in the pan. Saturated fats in the butter protect the poly unsaturated fats in the cooking oil from breaking down at higher temps.)

So, what kind of mix are we looking for?

Your first SIXTEEN passes through the centrifuges will produce a uranium that is about 95% U238 and 5% U235. This takes a long time, and a great deal of effort. That 10,000 lbs is now around 1,000 lbs, and it is only 5% U235. This is what is called 'Reactor Grade" Uranium. This is what reactors prefer to burn. The U235 undergoes the radioactive decay, there is enough U238 to stop reactions from going out of control. All we need to do is separate the Fluorine from the uranium, and we have "Yellow cake." (mmm... like a Bundt?)

(The leftover uranium is called Depleted Uranium. It has many uses. It was used in counterbalances in aircraft, in the keel of 1 particular sailboat, radiation shielding in medical uses, etc...)( Also, for the military minded, this is where the A-10 gets depleted uranium canon rounds.)

There is exactly zero benefit in civilian use for making uranium 'richer.' Reactors are designed to run on this combination. In fact, a number of countries (Spain, South Africa,) simply don't bother with enriching, and order their reactor uranium from the IAEA. Probably arrives in the mail in discreet unmarked paper bags.

However, let's say that you decide to continue the process, Now, you are starting with 2,000 lbs of uranium as you continue.

At around 20% ratio of U235 to 80% U238, you are at Naval propulsion and medical isotope research uranium (and you have about 400 lbs.) If you don't have nuclear subs, and you are building a massive medical research facility, there are really no practical uses for this metal. This level of uranium is also supplied by the IAEA to countries that purchase it.

You also need fewer and smaller centrifuge cascades at this point. (You can hide them underground much easier.) The time contingent is also here... it takes considerable less time to enrich from this point. So, from 1% to 5%, it takes 25 times the work as it does from 5% to 20%.

Now we run the 20% enriched uranium through a centrifuge cascade that is 25 TIMES smaller than the one we started with, and 5 times smaller than the previous step. At this point, we have 80% U235 to 20% U238, and we are at Weapons Grade Uranium. From your 400 lbs of medical uranium, you now have about 80 lbs of the Bomb. (BTW, this would, at normal densities, fit into a ball about 6" across. Yes, INCHES. So about the size of a cantaloupe. An 80 lb, explosive cantaloupe.)

btw, the depleted uranium can be used to fuel Mil Grade Breeder reactors, to wring even more out of the original 10klbs.It can also be used to create plutonium, which will give them access to fusion weapons, not just fission.

As you can see as the uranium gets more 'enriched,' the time to enrich it further and the size of the equipment both shrink. This is literally the turn of an adjustment screwdriver on the centrifuge hardware to accomplish, and it takes 1/25th the volume of equipment.

By allowing Iran to even be able to enrich, at any given time the are the turn of a screw from going nuclear.

When they 'light up,' they are not going to simply blow off the bomb that they have created; they are going to have 1,000 of them waiting the results of the test explosion. Once they are enriching in the final stages, they can make as much as they want, any time they want.

Six years ago, the understanding was "A nuclear Iran? NEVER!" But now we are playing this game of "A nuclear Iran? <kicks the can down the road> Not soon." The reality is, we cannot afford, for safety's sake that they even continue their own enrichment program (for which they have never given IAEA or UN inspectors complete access, to ensure they are complying with the Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation that they signed in 1957 and then IAEA Safeguards that they signed in 1973.)

Iran has yet to abide by a single treaty they have signed. Why on Earth does the President think that they will abide by this? They are just buying time... time to build, time to hide, and time to present to the world the fait accompli of being a nuclear weapon state.

And the world will be a very different place, indeed.